Our House View Report | Second Edition
February 2026
Surplus now.
Divergence later.
Rystad Energy’s integrated outlook on energy market fundamentals
Our House View Report delivers a clear, independent perspective on the future of global energy markets, including our assessment of how we believe the global energy system will evolve in the next 15 years. It synthesizes our outlook on demand, technology, policy, and macroeconomic drivers to outline the most likely trajectory of the energy transition and its implications for global markets. Combining robust data, scenario analysis, and expert insights, this report empowers you to navigate market risks, identify opportunities, and make confident strategic decisions.
The current phase of energy abundance is transient. It reduces immediate price pressure but discourages investment in the very supply required to sustain the system in the 2030s. As low-cost oil resources deplete and geopolitical fragmentation intensifies, marginal costs rise, and energy system divergence becomes structural.
Surplus now. More fragmented, more complex, and divergent energy systems later.
Claudio Galimberti | Chief Economist, Rystad Energy
Key highlights
Short-term surplus, long-term tightening
Markets remain well supplied in the near term, driven by OPEC output, US-led LNG expansion and solar PV oversupply in China. This abundance dampens investment signals and masks structural pressure building beneath the surface. Decline rates and rising marginal costs tighten the system in the 2030s.
Cost divergence: pricier molecules, cheaper electrons
Oil and gas face depletion, higher-cost supply and rising geopolitical risk premiums. At the same time, renewables, storage and electrification continue to scale and reduce power costs. The energy system structurally diverges as hydrocarbons become costlier and electrons cheaper.
Geopolitical divergence: fragmentation and dual systems
Energy security and strategic competition increasingly shape supply chains and investment. China consolidates as an electro-superpower while the US reinforces hydrocarbon dominance. Fragmentation raises costs, complexity and long-term system divergence.
Get the Full Picture: Download the second edition of our House View Report (condensed version)
Contributors
Claudio Galimberti
Chief Economist & Global Director of Market Analysis
Rystad Energy
Jarand Rystad
CEO
Rystad Energy
Lars Eirik Nicolaisen
Senior Partner & Deputy CEO
Rystad Energy
Per Magnus Nysveen
Senior Partner & Head of Analysis
Rystad Energy
Artem Abramov
Senior Partner & Head of Oil and Gas
Rystad Energy
Jon Ødegård Hansen
Senior Vice President Global Energy Systems
Rystad Energy
Lars Nitter Havro
Head of Energy Macro
Rystad Energy
Jorge León
Senior Vice President & Head of Geopolitical Analysis
Rystad Energy
Jo Husebye
Senior Partner & Head of Energy Systems
Rystad Energy
First edition of the House View Report
Our first edition delivers a clear, independent perspective on the future of global energy markets, including our assessment of how we believe the global energy system will evolve in the next 15 years.
Our House View
Spending in the global oil and gas industry will settle around 2023 levels, while expenditure in low-carbon sectors such as wind, solar and geothermal is expected to continue expanding through the years. When comparing low-carbon sectors to oil and gas, the flow of capital towards the energy transition is clear. Despite a renewed appetite for natural gas, capital expenditure in the oil and gas industry will remain flat in the coming years as companies sanction fewer projects towards the second half of this decade.