The shipping industry's path to decarbonisation is far from straightforward. Regulatory timelines are shifting, alternative fuels are maturing at different rates and the infrastructure to support them is still being built. When Höegh Autoliners needed to make decisions in this uncertain environment, they turned to Rystad Energy Advisory for independent analysis that could cut through the uncertainty. Working closely with Höegh's team, Rystad conducted a structured assessment of alternative fuel economics, bunkering infrastructure and long-horizon price scenarios, giving Höegh the analytical foundation to act with confidence and position itself ahead of its peers on the clean fuel transition.

Roll-on/roll-off (RoRo) shipping sits at an unusual intersection of the energy transition. Growing EV adoption is reshaping the cargo these vessels carry, increasing both volumes and operational complexity. At the same time, decarbonisation pressure on the ships themselves is intensifying through ETS carbon pricing, FuelEU Maritime and the IMO's evolving net zero framework.

That regulatory picture remains incomplete. The IMO's net zero implementation timeline has been subject to delay, slowing some of the industry acceleration that had been anticipated and creating ambiguity for operators making long-cycle capital decisions. Vessels ordered today will be operating in 2055. Getting the propulsion choice right the first time carries consequences that compound over decades.

Höegh Autoliners needed to get its heads around future fuels at the exact moment it was committing to significant capital. The core analytical challenge was not simply identifying which fuel to choose, but building the kind of rigorous, defensible view that could hold up across three decades of asset life and across conversations with customers, regulators, financiers and peers. The bunkering infrastructure question was particularly acute. Confidence in ammonia propulsion required more than a view on molecule pricing. It required granular analysis of where production, liquefaction and bunkering capacity was actually being built, at what cost and on what timeline. That kind of bottoms-up work was challenging to pull together in-house.

Höegh's Autoliners' ambition also went beyond what regulation demanded. Through its Planet Development Goals and voluntary commitments, the company had set a course that required genuinely understanding the alternatives, not simply meeting a compliance threshold and moving on.

Our Advisory team conducted a structured fuel price study examining the economics of ammonia, methanol, LNG and other candidate fuels across long-horizon scenarios, calibrated to Höegh's specific operating context. The analysis went beyond headline price projections. Rystad modelled molecule cost curves with the same granularity applied to its flagship energy data products, tracking regional supply dynamics and infrastructure build-out rates across the markets where Höegh's fleet would need to bunker. China was identified as a critical variable, given the pace at which ammonia molecule prices there are developing.

The work gave Höegh a clear-eyed view of the trade-offs between fuel pathways, monitoring technologies and bunkering infrastructure maturity, structured to hold up in stakeholder conversations with customers, regulators and suppliers alike.

The Rystad Energy Advisory engagements gave Höegh the confidence to move. The company committed to ammonia dual-fuel engines for the final four vessels in its order book, targeting delivery from Summer 2027 with Enova support, among the first operators in its segment to do so. Beyond the investment decision itself, the work changed how Höegh engages on decarbonisation. Having independent, data-driven analysis behind its position strengthened the company's credibility across the value chain, from customer conversations to regulatory dialogue.

Note: Headshot photo credit - Stian Thorvaldsen / Playroom