Over the past three years, Western OEMs have retrenched to core markets, aiming to restore profitability after years of margin pressure. Input costs declined in 2024, but turbine prices continued to rise, helping Western OEMs improve their earnings. Still, CAPEX remains a central concern for developers, especially as interest rates stay elevated.

In China, manufacturers responded to the phase-out of feed-in tariffs by introducing larger turbine models to keep costs down. This intensified domestic competition and led to falling turbine prices - eroding margins. With installations expected to peak in 2025 and decline in 2026, Chinese OEMs are increasingly looking abroad to absorb excess capacity and restore profitability. In export markets, their turbines remain 30–40% cheaper than Western equivalents, giving them a strong cost advantage.

Much of this international expansion has focused on emerging markets. Since 2020, Chinese OEMs’ share of total orders in regions such as Central Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and South America has grown from under 30% to more than 50%. Their strategy—prioritizing price and availability—has proven effective in displacing Western suppliers.

To support this push, Chinese OEMs have begun building manufacturing capacity outside China. Facilities have been established in countries like Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, Brazil and more recently, Oman, bringing them closer to key customers. But in Europe, progress has been slower. Chinese OEMs have secured only a limited number of projects—mostly in Southern and Eastern Europe—and factory plans remain uncertain.

So, what’s holding them back?

The challenge for Chinese OEMs is not cost—it’s credibility. To establish a foothold in Europe, they need volume. But developers, lenders, and policymakers remain hesitant.

Eight main factors contribute to this resistance:

• Track record: Developers are wary of limited international experience and the absence of long-term performance data.

• Contract structures: Chinese OEMs often offer non-standard contract terms, complicating direct comparison with Western suppliers.

• Certification gaps: Incomplete or non-EU certification adds cost and uncertainty—especially around component quality and compliance with IEC standards.

• HSE practices: Europe’s strict health and safety requirements pose a barrier for firms unfamiliar with local expectations.

• Aftermarket support: A weak service network in Europe raises concerns around turbine reliability, especially for critical components like blades.

• Bankability: Lenders typically favor established OEMs; uncertainty around technology and geopolitics can lead to higher financing costs.

• Regulatory risks: Under the EU’s Foreign Subsidy Regulation, OEMs under investigation face greater project risks and delays.

• Cybersecurity: With energy infrastructure under the spotlight, political concerns over Chinese hardware are growing.

European sentiment toward Chinese OEMs varies. While Northern Europe tends to focus on supply chain sovereignty and national security, Southern Europe appears more open—helped by experience with Chinese suppliers in Africa and the Middle East. Developers like EDP, Engie, and EDF have become more familiar with these firms in other regions, which may open the door to future projects in Europe.

Ultimately, Chinese OEMs can compete on cost—but scaling up in Europe requires more than that. Developers need confidence that projects will perform. Insurers and lenders want evidence that risks are manageable. And governments want to ensure national interests are protected. Without addressing these credibility challenges, cost advantages alone won’t be enough to secure a rapidly emerging role in the European wind market.

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